It’s been a very difficult five years for farmers, especially when it comes to fertiliser. Volatile prices and supply issues are causing no end of trouble. Unfortunately, the forecast is high prices may persist until 2028. It could have a big impact on the agricultural industries in countries all around the world.

Timeline

There were surges in the price of fertilisers in 2021 because of big jumps in natural gas prices. Things got worse due to the Ukraine war because of disruptions to the supply chain. The Iran war then had a huge impact, closing the Strait of Hormuz and affecting global supplies of fertilisers and key raw materials, including urea and phosphate.

With conflicts ongoing in both Ukraine/Russia and Iran and other parts of the Middle East, there are big fears it will take years for prices to come down. CoBank recently said they expect costs to be higher until 2028. This is something farmers need to prepare for.

Key supplies

It isn’t just the geopolitical instability that is causing problems for fertiliser. Supplies of key raw ingredients have become tighter, increasing costs. This includes sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate rock. All three are key for creating phosphorus fertilisers. They are important for farmers, helping to replace key nutrients in soil to support various crops. Without them, yields can drop dramatically, affecting supplies.

Phosphate rock is one of the major problems. It’s a non-renewable resource so supplies are finite to begin with. On top of that, most of the mining is done in a small number of locations. This makes supply chains more fragile. China is a major source, but has placed heavy restrictions on exports to protect domestic food supplies.

What can farmers do?

Unfortunately in most cases farmers have no choice but to pay the higher prices. Some Governments, including the EU, are looking to step in to help, including offering financial aid. It’s harder in the UK though.

One thing farmers can do is conduct soil analysis to determine if they need fertiliser and how much. It can help them to reduce how much they need to order and their expenses. However, it is vital to keep in mind that under-fertilisation can lead to big problems in the future. It can cause yields to drop in the two or three years as soil quality declines.

The hope is conflicts can be resolved, easing geopolitical tension and allowing markets to stabilise and recover. We also need to see improvements in the availability of key supplies, including sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate rock.

Speak to us about fertiliser

While it is a really difficult time to be a farmer, the classic British phrase “calm down and carry on” rings true. There is still work to do, including planning planting and harvests. Soil analysis is a great idea. Even adapting what you plant can be an option to protect fields.

If you do need to order fertiliser, you should speak to us. JS Hubbuck Ltd is a family business and has been supplying it for decades, supporting British farmers. We’ve seen how issues can impact supplies and prices, so we do all we can to help. You can contact us to discuss everything.